Balls to 2-0-8

Ever hear the one about how if all the people in China jumped at the same time, the Earth would change course? Well, 2008 is a leap year. There's a perfect storm on the way.

2008 is going to be the longest ever year in politics, in part due to it being a leap year, but mainly because one can already see the thread holding the Sword of Damocles above the Labour Government has broken. It ends this year. HOW it ends will be the interesting thing.

The Ozzies not only threw John Howard out of government, but also out of his electorate. The recent US nominations shows that all the money in the world cannot buy an election, wherever it comes from. A hope for something different can. Obama's nailed it: Change.

Only a fool walks away from power, and Helen Clark is no fool. Think of the tradition of a reluctant, struggling Speaker being led to the chair. There's a lot less acting required in showing a leader being dragged reluctant and struggling from the throne. They tend to lash out a bit too.

My main concern is the very real prospect of the Greens getting wiped out completely. While the Greens should never be given anything more fuck-upable than Women's Affairs, they play an important role in the parliamentary chamber. Like Act, they have provided the ideas that Labour and the Nats have eventually adapted to. Even the stopped clock of Peter Dunne has been accurate on occasions.

Therefore, I'm utterly blown away at the rumour of a magnanimous Nandor stepping down for his co-leader. It's the right thing to do. We can only hope that Sue Kedgeley will stand aside so Russel can run in Wellington Central. The obvious ticket from there is to do a Rodney. Appeal to the electorate's tactical voting ability and make a real change. Big ask, but do-able. You can donate to the Greens' targeted fundraising for their Campaign Managers here. Go on, it won't hurt.

While the Greens, Act and even Dunne have provided the brains trust in parliament, the same cannot be said for NZ First. Thinking back to all the time Winston Peters has been in positions of power, how has this country benefitted? Supergold card? No, Winston is in power for Winston. His one skill lies in opposition, but he's not content with that any more. Winston is nobody's fool but his own.

Winston Peters is a political werewolf, and only the silver bullet of Grey Power can bring him down. They are unbelievably pissed at the EFA. No pennies for Winston this time. Peters will not regain Tauranga. New Zealand First will finally luck out, not making five percent. We will finally be rid of this beast. If we can be rid of the stoat-like Ron Mark as well, that's a bonus.

Barring inane or bizarre press statements, the Maori Party should grab all the Maori seats. Good on them too. Rodney keeps Epsom but is left dancing with himself. Peter Dunne keeps his seat, if for no other reason than Labour and National splitting the electorate vote. He ends up sitting next to Rodney in the House.

An early election would not help Labour reduce its loses, and none of the minor parties dare bring the current government down before full term. It almost killed Winston in 1999. This time around would be politically fatal to any who tried. Besides, the incumbents need time to martial their forces, time for the Free Trade Agreement with China to sink in, the Electoral Finance and Interim Meaning Acts to start paying dividends.

Labour has long ago ceased to be a team effort, and maintains its continued existence entirely due to Helen Clark's willpower. Helen Clark is not only the Labour government's best chance at remining in power, she is the ONLY chance. Changing leaders is not a goer, even if Helen Clark could gain some cold comfort in getting Phil Goff purged as quickly as possible.

The perils of jumping the gun is why the Nats are sitting comfortably on a double-digit lead in the polls at present. They're not even trying, just ticking it over. Labour is it's own worst enemy anyway, requiring little provocation to lose their rag.

If 2005 was called a two horse race between Don Brash's National and Clark's Labour, this year will be John Key's Opitmus Prime versus Clark's Decepticon fighting on the freeway. NZ First stomped. Greens wrapped around one of Labour's low-emission streetlamps. Rodney's and Dunne's lives are spared due to airbags.

It's National by a landslide. If Labour are lucky, it'll only hurt like 1990. Oh, and Obama will be President of the United States.

Obama Mana

The Iowa Democratic nomination went to Barack Obama. Bill Clinton may have played saxophone, but Obama plays better tunes with his vocal cadence. If Bill is a session musican, Barack is Miles Davis. This dude is exactly what the US needs right now; an intelligent, confident, articulate, open-minded leader. Dagg knows, someone's got to clean up the mess the chimp left behind. Wow. Like, WOW:





Graeme Edgeler gives a vivid outline of how the US Electoral system works. I thought Hunter was using hyperbole when he described the process in Fear & Loathing on the Campaign Trail. Omfg, what a pan-galactic clusterfuck of a democracy. Little wonder the voter turn-out rate is so appalling, nor the sheer bloody-minded complexity that maintains the duopoly of power between the elephants and the donkeys.

Fuck Huckabee, the Republicans are rightful (righteous?) toast. What Craig Ranapaia said: "As for the Republicans - Huckabee or Romney? Gee, gonnorhea or syphilis?"

Systemic failure to uphold safeguards

Privacy International has released its "Leading surveillance societies in the EU and the World 2007" report:



New Zealand has "systemic failure to uphold safeguards". Our score was equivalent to the EU average, 2.3. This well behind Germany (2.8 and decaying) and Canada (2.9). While New Zealanders may work the same long hours as the Greeks, we don't share their effort in keeping the tentacles of state out of our affairs. They top the charts with 3.1.

New Zealand scores particularly poorly in Communication Interception. An SOE infiltrated the Save Happy Valley movement. Tame Iti's Flightless Circus was monitored in fascinating detail:

"Officers watched them shop, listened to them talk as they drove to what is alleged were guerrilla training camps, and copied their text messages as they arranged their meetings...

During their investigations, police used sophisticated mobile phone eavesdropping technology and trained covert cameras on suspects' homes, a remote bush path and at vehicle tracks and camp training grounds. They traced new suspects and gained information via computer sites, phone, bank and power records, Trade Me user profiles, passports and birth certificates, as well as from an informant."

In fairness, the Law Commission has released a report slamming the state of state search and surveillance. I've seen it but not read it. The phonebook-sized volumes are more than a little daunting. The headlines have pointed out that the current state of affairs is not good. What would be more constructive is if someone with a mind for such matters can wade through the thing in its entirety and translate it. Where are they aiming this thing?

New Zealand is some way away from the black security blankets of the US, UK and China, but we are not as free as we think. In spite of best intentions, nanny states tend to get kinky.

Reasons to be Cheerful IV

2007 was a good year for movies. Black Snake Moan and Pan's Labyrinth led the pack by some lengths, although other reviewers had their own favourites. Haven't seen The Darjeeling Limited yet... hmmm... Kiwi movies made a splash on Empire's Top 5 lists, with Eagle vs Shark in Best Laughs, and Black Sheep for Best Tagline. Kiwi humour today. Tomorrow, the WORLD!

What does 2008 have in store from the storytellers? Kate Roger says American Gangster and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street are worth a go. All good stories involve blood. If you can throw a musical into a bloodbath and get away with it, then it's worth a go. Paul Thomas Anderson shows that the Western ain't dead with There Will Be Blood. It's about oil.

Roger Donaldson returns with The Bank Job, an anti-authority movie harking back to Sleeping Dogs:

"In September 1971, thieves tunneled into the vault of a bank in London's Baker Street and looted safe deposit boxes of cash and jewelry worth over three million pounds. None of it was recovered. Nobody was ever arrested. The robbery made headlines for a few days and then disappeared - the result of a 'D' Notice, gagging the press. This film reveals what was hidden for the first time. The story involves murder, corruption and a sex scandal with links to the Royal Family - a story in which the thieves were the most innocent people involved."

2008 is brought to you by the number 2. Hellboy 2: The Golden Army. All hell breaks loose. Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay. Hopefully, Doogie doesn't. Of course, one can't ignore the return of The Dark Knight. Some particularly bad timing for Helen Clark. Lots of cartoon mileage to be made here:



Versus:



Yes, it's going to get very dirty. But that is another post.

Fernando Meirelles' follow-up to City of God, City of Men, is the most anticipated of the number 2s. While we're in the ethnic (non-Hollywood) section, best to keep an eye out for Mongol. In the kids' section, there's the classic Where The Wild Things Are. Directed by Spike Jonze with fantastic casting.

Back in the Hollywood category, the studios have doubled 2 and discovered Indy 4, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Rocky 6 proved not only that Sly can't count higher than one hand, Stallone's synapses have stretched his creative talents to calling Rambo 4, John Rambo. This time he's not conspiring with Taleban.

Enough dreck. The most anticipated movie of 2008 is a draw between Burn After Reading and Synecdoche, New York. Burn After Reading is a Coen Brothers spy comedy, while Synecdoche, New York is Charlie Kaufman's directorial debut.

Have a Wonderful Period

Happy New Regulated Period!

Dickheads of 2007

Bill Maher lists 13 of the biggest assholes of 2007 in the latest Rolling Stone:



Hat Tip onegoodmove

Fade to Grey

Dodging definitions in EFB

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul have demonstrated how easy it is to avoid proscriptive definitions on electoral advertising:



No-one is soliciting a vote for Ron Paul. All the blimp asks is that you Google him.

Poisoning Pigeons in the Park

Public servants and other office workers are in fear for their life, or at least their lunch, by pigeons in Midland Park. Defenceless retail assistants are getting mugged for their muffins, prompting Wellington City Council to issue an ultimatum to park users. Stop feeding them and littering, or the pigeons will be "culled."

While council staff consider "the most effective and humane way of culling the population," here's a range of suggestions free of charge:

• Have recordings of Jim Anderton speeches broadcast over speakers in the park. Either no-one will stay long enough to litter or feed the pigeons, or the drone will put the pigeons to sleep.
• Taser them. If it's humane enough to use on humans, it's OK for pigeons.
• Use up excess stocks of BZP by putting doses in raisins for the pigeons to consume.
• Have some bodypainters paint the birds with the NZ flag and let Tame Iti complete his community service by shooting at them.
• Turn John Key's mass of useless DVDs into shurikens. Charge $2 for a throw at a pigeon.
• Trevor Mallard spends summer working as a scarecrow at Midland Park. Optional extra, he can threaten to punch people for littering or feeding the birds.
• Sign up all the pigeons as National party members and let the Labour government do the rest.
  

A nice pair

Auckland is invading Wellington over the next few days. There's the Blammers and RB coming down for a gig at the Second AWAs tomorrow night tonight. Tonight If you miss out a spot at Might Mighty, there's Michelle A'Court and Jan Maree at the San Francisco Bath House Comedy Night. 8:30 onwards, $15 on the door (Cheap!) Next week, Ewen Gilmour takes the stage.

Thank you for whingeing, you *%$@!

Fidel's Cafe has been fined $600 for allowing smoking in the rear section of their premises:

"Acting on a complaint last year, smokefree enforcement officers from Regional Public Health contacted the cafe about the breach, reminding staff of their legal obligations. Though the cafe agreed to alter the smoking area to comply, staff let people continue to smoke and failed to erect non-smoking signs or remove ashtrays."

The last civilised place to relax with coffee and cigarettes has been dobbed in to the safety nazis. Not content with the huge non-smoking area available in the main cafe, some cum stain of an excuse for a human being has bleated to the health police about the back porch where people could relax and enjoy their rituals without being exposed to inclement weather. Tosser.

Happy Birthday Roger

Although I didn't have a spare $90 to attend Sir Roger's birthday at the Beehive tonight, my heartiest congratulations to Roger on his 70th birthday. Cactus Kate has a good spiel on His Douglasness.

I always enjoyed Roger's company when I visited Dad in parliament. Roger had a mellowing effect on the old man. Many years later, it was a pleasure having Roger at my roulette table at Sky City's VIP lounge, where I would try to section spin for him.

All the best to you, Roger.

Royale with Kiwis

GONZO FREAKPOWER BRAINS TRUST
PRESS RELEASE
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Following the Green Party's call for an independent inquiry into electoral financing and the Ombudman's call for a Royal Commission on the criminal justice system, the goNZo Freakpower Brains Trust calls for a Royal Commission on Everything.

"Everything's completely buggered," Chief Executive of the goNZo Freakpower Brains Trust, Will de Cleene, says. "The hospitals are fucked, the prisons munted, the justice system a labyrinthine latrine which favours only those who can afford a decent lawyer. The tertiary education sector is nothing more than a kindergarten for retards, leaving our overcrowded and corrupt prisons as the best public education system on offer."

The goNZo Freakpower Brains Trust calls for a Royal Commission with infinite terms of reference. "This country's been pissing about for too long," says de Cleene. "It's time we got our shit together."

ENDS

EFB Live

The marathon on the EFB has started. It's good TV til Outrageous Fortune. Just caught the end of a round of Points of Order that ended up recalling a very grumpy Margaret Wilson to the House. There are still no sign of the 150 amendments alluded to by DPF in the public realm.

Oh dear, votes now being taken on a number of amendments proposed by Chris Finlayson. Insert a word here, a subclause there. A vocal vote is taken, someone objects, party votes are taken labouriously. Each vote comes out the same: 56-65. It's fillibusting on a base level.

Maybe I'll just watch the sunset instead...

Final thoughts before urgency

Labour are determined to enhance participatory democracy by ramming through the Electoral Finance Bill by the end of the year. Tomorrow will see the start of one of the harshest, meanest, longest sittings in NZ's parliamentary history. For their sins, Labour have only themselves to blame. What remains to be seen is whether the Greens can regain any of the moral high ground.

It seems like yesterday that I was sitting in class listening to Dr Helena Catt outline her thoughts on how electoral finance could be reformed. It involved true transparency of election funding, with both state and private contributions playing their part. What with Parliamentary Services and the broadcasting allocations currently used to fund party advertising, it is a no-brainer to include taxpayer funding in any new scheme.

It involved simplicity, thereby fostering public participation by clarifying what the rule book said.

I may have misheard, but what little Dr Catt said about "third party" regulation involved a carrot and stick approach. Yes, third parties could be registered, but in return they too might have dibs on public funding to express their voices come election time. It was an inspired way to address the democratic deficit of falling voter turnout. Get people involved in third parties and lobby groups, saying things in their own voice in their own way. Handshake it into the mainstream audience through allocated funding. Brilliant.

So, back in April 2006, the Electoral Commission had a pretty good idea of how to tidy the whole thing up. There was nothing preventing the government from throwing these ideas out to the public forum then and there. Ineptly, they bled the state funding story out to test the waters.
It was an early sign of a complete mishandling of such a delicate matter. The waters seethed like a Rotorua mudpool and the government threw up their hands up in pain and defeat, dismissing public funding as political suicide.

Instead, they chose a more drawn-out method of self-immolation. The Electoral Finance Bill was drawn up in secret, a most novel method of increasing democratic participation.

The Electoral Funding Symposium in June was timed to coincide with the release of the draft EFB. It was a reasonable enough assumption. A light Order Paper allowed ample time for the process of legislating the Bill. Who in their right mind would attempt to push through such a controversial Bill less than 12 months before a general election?

The Symposium was to provide a forum on the EFB. Lacking a body to dissect, it ended up being an interesting morning of case studies and overview of existing electoral finance structures, followed by a yawning range of party policy statements in the afternoon.

The launch of the Electoral Finance Bill in July made the KiwiSaver launch look lucid in comparison. Mark Burton couldn't sell umbrellas to Aucklanders, let alone such a mish-mash of mischievous mayhem. I'm flabbergasted that none of Labour's strategists saw this mess coming. What is it with this year? Who died or quit? 2007 seems to be the year Labour lost its head and went feral.

And I have an abiding suspicion that the left wing voting bloc is going to get very feral next year. Methinks Labour have put a big banana skin in the path of the Greens and the Greens are blithely heading straight for it. Even in its current incarnation, the EFB will end up biting the Greens more than Labour. By supporting the EFB, the Greens may be creating their own nemesis.

Judging from Jeanette Fitzsimons launching the F Bomb on the steps of parliament, they are keenly aware of what is at stake. If the Greens are responsible for moderating the EFB in such a way that NORML may be exempt from its effect, that's all well and good. However, it does not remove the very strange precedents still embedded in this Bill. It does not mitigate the reprehensible way this Bill was put together, nor the way it will be rammed through without proper public consultation and input.

How can the Greens salvage some integrity? It's a shame that National have ruled out any deals on the Bill. For National, not the Greens. The Nats have eliminated any chance for bonus points on the Section 59 precedent. John Key will not save the day this time. It's up to the Green MPs to score the points instead.

On a minor victory level, the Greens could amend where they can, and admit the Bill is flawed and ugly. They could agree to the EFB on condition that an amendment is included that terminates the EFB after the next election. It would coincide with the death of the Interim Meaning Bill too. Russel Norman has gone on record for supporting a Citizen's Jury. A Royal Commission does not rule this out. The Nats have already said they'll repeal, so there's nothing lost in the end.

If the Greens are looking for a dramatic flourish, there's another option. Kill the Bill. Not in its entirety, just on necessary clauses. No-one in Labour has yet demonstrated the fixation on January 1st being the start of the regulated period. Three months prior is the generally accepted standard. Vote down January 1 and stick with three months. One could quibble over things such as fixing the election date in stone (notwithstanding a vote of no-confidence) as a pre-requisite. Or the Greens could throw out defintion (ii), therefore defining an electoral advertisement only as attempting to persuade to vote or not vote explicitly for a party or candidate (i).

Nandor, Meyt and Keith crossed the floor for the Dog Microchipping Bill. Surely they can do it again for a much more important reason?